Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 222.417034 271.808737 333.531305 417.836847 532.431116 6.865372e+02 9.163226e+02
2025-05-25 161.713292 215.498856 291.320252 410.619094 603.060116 9.206602e+02 1.533909e+03
2025-06-01 127.970570 180.240196 259.995155 398.426594 651.917657 1.145013e+03 2.345225e+03
2025-06-08 106.172363 155.640127 235.651858 385.373737 688.992774 1.369232e+03 3.432279e+03
2025-06-15 98.752812 151.123793 241.411921 425.404926 846.693437 1.976825e+03 6.673592e+03
2025-06-22 88.224914 139.103254 230.855755 429.826505 929.646636 2.483399e+03 1.115134e+04
2025-06-29 81.050931 131.443095 226.315163 445.013846 1049.018055 3.254668e+03 2.108759e+04
2025-07-06 73.229965 121.254744 214.622043 440.146314 1111.619865 3.920841e+03 3.669853e+04
2025-07-13 70.797901 120.661048 222.078547 484.104009 1357.320865 5.908879e+03 1.178730e+05
2025-07-20 68.030953 118.920146 226.663936 522.715412 1621.918533 8.847357e+03 5.671435e+05
2025-07-27 64.846540 115.824258 227.551678 551.712125 1881.564426 1.295476e+04 7.034246e+06
2025-08-03 61.426959 111.736244 225.305040 570.853292 2123.213739 1.851769e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 57.415427 106.087226 218.806619 576.476245 2322.716161 2.578154e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 53.097981 99.263595 208.256117 565.380119 2427.269898 3.323217e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 48.995478 92.445595 196.610060 546.858546 2474.756132 4.091941e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 45.334683 86.220907 185.542859 527.129239 2500.554409 4.957834e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 44.987266 87.485149 194.645929 587.906442 3214.337234 1.207963e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 42.783879 84.161050 190.542925 594.669258 3521.256195 2.055115e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 41.262622 82.285031 190.239285 617.972120 4049.951838 4.691087e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 39.017557 78.424322 183.539499 610.491221 4257.487197 8.295532e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 38.829137 79.583741 192.023763 678.463358 5588.179231 9.327877e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 38.325382 79.892863 198.019044 738.914878 7150.966595 9.459275e+11 NaN
2025-10-19 37.472270 79.208043 200.755356 784.755181 8790.250905 NaN NaN